Biden sentiment sees sharp decline to below 40% following U.S. presidential debate

Biden's sentiment drops below 40% post-debate, reveals AI analysis by Permutable AI, driven by critical media and NY Times urging him to step down.

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, July 2, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- A recent AI-driven analysis of sentiment around Biden following the U.S. presidential debate by global political sentiment data provider Permutable AI shows Biden's sentiment sharply declines to below 40%, as a result of critical media coverage and public reactions to his performance during the debate. This negative shift in sentiment was further exacerbated by the New York Times' suggestion that Biden should leave the presidential race to serve his country, which likely influenced public opinion and contributed to the decline.

The news sentiment analysis, undertaken from March to July 2024, reveals significant trends in public perception of presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump. To derive this news sentiment analysis, our machine learning model combed through the internet across over 3,700 sources and more than 1 million articles across relevant data sources. Our aim was to identify shifts in public opinion, track media influence, and gauge the overall sentiment towards each candidate.

In the context of political analysis, sentiment refers to the attitude or feeling expressed in text about a particular subject, such as a political candidate, and is categorised as positive, negative, or neutral based on language in news articles, social media, and public discourse. Positive sentiment indicates favourable opinions, essential for garnering public support, while negative sentiment reflects unfavourable opinions, which can diminish voter confidence and support. Sentiment analysis using AI and machine learning helps evaluate these attitudes to understand public perception and its impact on political candidates.

June 2024 sentiment trends:

- Early June: Both candidates experienced fluctuating sentiment scores around 46-50%.
- Mid-June: Biden’s sentiment peaked at around 56%, with Trump’s remaining stable.
- Pre-debate: Trump’s sentiment dipped below Biden’s briefly before the debate.
- Post-debate: Following the debate on June 28,, Biden's sentiment saw a sharp decline to below 40%, while Trump’s sentiment increased, peaking around the same time.

State-wise sentiment scores:

- California: Biden leads with an average sentiment score of 53%, compared to Donald Trump's 47%.
- Florida: Both candidates are tied with a sentiment score of 49%.
- Ohio: Trump slightly edges out Biden with 50% over 48%.
- Texas: Trump holds a significant lead with 56%, while Biden scores 40%.
- Georgia: Biden leads with 55% against Trump’s 52%.
- Illinois: Trump has a much higher sentiment score (48%) compared to Biden’s 20%.
- New York: Biden leads with 52% over Trump’s 46%.
- Pennsylvania: Both candidates show high sentiment scores, with Biden slightly ahead at 63% versus Trump’s 62% .

Impact of the debate and media commentary:

The political debate held on June 28 significantly impacted both candidates' sentiment scores. Biden experienced a sharp decline post-debate, while Trump’s sentiment peaked, suggesting the debate resulted in him being perceived more favourably. The recent New York Times' statement suggesting that Biden should leave the presidential race to serve his country might have influenced the decline in his sentiment score, highlighting the powerful role of media commentary in shaping public perception.

Analysis overview:

The sentiment analysis highlights the dynamic nature of public opinion, particularly around key events such as political debates. Joe Biden’s sentiment scores were generally higher than Donald Trump’s in several key states, indicating stronger public support in those regions. However, the debate and subsequent media coverage had a significant impact on Biden’s public perception, leading to a significant drop in sentiment. Donald Trump’s sentiment showed resilience and a peak post-debate, reflecting a more relative positive reception from the public during this critical period. These findings highlight the importance of media influence and the volatile nature of political sentiment.

Wilson Chan, CEO of Permutable AI, commented on the findings: "Our data clearly shows how pivotal moments like debates and media statements can drastically sway public opinion. The significant drop in Biden’s sentiment post-debate illustrates the power of media influence and public perception in shaping political landscapes."

Talya Stone
Permutable AI
talya@permutable.ai
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