What do you do when the economy is going to hell, 401(k)s are going down the toilet and we're bracing for higher prices on nearly everything?
If you're an average American, you worry.
If you're Donald Trump, you go golfing, as he did twice last weekend, even as people took to the streets in every major city in the country to protest his policies.
And if you're a Republican senator, you stay up half the night to push through a budget bill that provides trillions of dollars of tax cuts for the very wealthy that can only be paid for by cutting health care for the poor and elderly.
Something is very wrong with this picture.
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It's hard to find a reputable economist who thinks Trump's tariff frenzy is anything other than economic suicide. That islands inhabited only by penguins were included in the tariff plan is the most laughable evidence that the Trump team simply doesn't know what it's doing. He said he wanted to put a tariff on everyone, and they gave him everyone -- and everything. It makes us — because of them — look like the fools they are.
Trump has already said that he doesn't care if prices go up. His Commerce Secretary (who he is reportedly listening to, as opposed to the Treasury Secretary) has said that seniors like his mother-in-law wouldn't complain if their Social Security checks don't come in the mail (maybe because she's the mother-in-law of a billionaire). It will all make America stronger in the long run, they tell us. Clearly, the market does not agree. And that hurts everyone.
Against this background, what the Senate did is even more unbelievable. Working late into the night, they pulled 51 votes together to pass a budget plan providing for more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. Get this: according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, some 45% of the benefits of those tax cuts would go to those making $450,000 a year. The math is easy. Upwards of $2 trillion in tax cuts for the very wealthiest Americans.
And how do you pay for that while increasing defense spending, which the Republicans also propose to do? The Republicans aren't saying. The DOGE boys, with their blunderbuss firings, are only nibbling at the edges. In the Senate, Democrats accused Republicans of setting in motion plans that can only be accomplished by blowing up the safety net. You can't make up for a $5 trillion tax cut by getting rid of the Department of Education or any other discretionary spending. You have to cut Medicaid.
Neither the House nor the Senate bill spells out how the tax cuts are going to be paid for. But independent research leaves no doubt. Under the House version, the Energy and Commerce Committee is directed to find $880 billion in cuts over the 10-year budget plan. But the Congressional Budget Office found that, assuming Social Security is off the table, 93% of the non-Medicare spending under the Committee's jurisdiction is for Medicaid, with an additional $200 billion for the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP). According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, even if Energy and Commerce eliminated all non-Medicaid and CHIP spending — which it is not likely to do — "the committee would need to cut federal spending on Medicaid and CHIP by well over $700 billion, nearly 10% of projected spending ... The math is conclusive: Major cuts to Medicaid are the only way to meet the House's budget resolution requirements."
The courts are doing what they can to check the excesses of the Trump administration. Courageous federal judges are literally putting their lives on the line to enforce the Constitution and preserve our democracy. But the economy is not on the court's docket. Saving health care for the poor is not a federal case. If there is to be a check and a balance, it must come from Congress. The Fed, under the able leadership of Jay Powell, will do what it can. But the Congress must act — responsibly. And they will be held accountable in the midterms.
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This Susan Estrich commentary is her opinion. She can be reached at sestrich@wctrib.com.
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