East Coast oasis where residents are selling their million-dollar beachside homes amid housing crash fears
While Florida's real estate market is often described as scorching hot, one Gulf Coast city may be headed for a cooldown.
Punta Gorda, a metro area that saw explosive growth during the pandemic, is now flashing signs of a potential price correction.
New housing data from ResiClub reveals that Punta Gorda's inventory levels have skyrocketed — climbing 89 percent above what they were in March 2019.
That puts it near the very top of the list among U.S. metro areas where the number of homes for sale has fully rebounded from the pandemic low point — and then some.
During the housing boom of 2020 to 2022, listings across the country dropped as fast-moving demand outpaced supply.
But in cities like Punta Gorda, that momentum has now reversed. With home prices already stretched far above what many locals can afford and higher mortgage rates cutting into buyer budgets, demand is softening — leaving more homes on the market.
Punta Gorda is one of 58 major U.S. housing markets where inventory levels have returned to or exceeded pre-pandemic norms, according to a ResiClub analysis.
However, few metros have seen as sharp a rise in active listings as this small Florida city, making it one of the most closely watched markets in 2025.
Punta Gorda, Florida, is showing signs of a housing market correction, with inventory levels now 89 percent higher than they were in 2019 — one of the largest increases in the nation
This surge in listings signals a shift in power from sellers to buyers, as affordability challenges and higher mortgage rates cool demand
That surge in supply has coincided with another ominous signal: Punta Gorda has been flagged as one of the most at-risk metro areas in the nation for home price declines.
According to CoreLogic's Market Risk Indicator, there's more than a 70 percent chance the city will see prices fall over the next 12 months.
The risk doesn't suggest a crash — but rather a realignment. Punta Gorda was one of the many Florida markets that experienced a rush of remote workers and retirees during the pandemic, which sent home prices soaring.
Now, with that influx slowing and locals priced out, the market appears to be rebalancing.
Adding pressure is the volume of new construction in the region. Builders — more responsive to market shifts than individual sellers — have already begun offering price reductions and perks to attract hesitant buyers. That, in turn, puts pressure on existing homeowners trying to sell.
Nationally, housing inventory remains below where it stood before the pandemic — about 20 percent lower than March 2019.
But places like Punta Gorda, where supply has not only recovered but surged past historical norms, are now considered 'buyer-leaning' markets.
In these areas, home prices are more likely to flatten or fall as supply outpaces demand.
CoreLogic has flagged the metro as having a greater than 70 percent chance of home price declines in 2025, one of the highest risks in the country
The area, like many along Florida’s southwest coast, boomed during the pandemic but is now facing longer listing times and more frequent price cuts
Builders offering incentives on new homes are also adding pressure to the resale market
Experts suggest this is part of a broader trend: Florida's post-pandemic housing market is beginning to normalize after years of explosive growth
Experts caution that what's happening in Punta Gorda isn't the same as the housing crash of 2008.
There are no widespread foreclosures or signs of systemic collapse. Instead, what appears to be unfolding is a market correction—an overdue cooling after years of unsustainable growth.
And for prospective buyers, that could be good news. The rise in inventory and the softening in prices may create more favorable conditions, especially for those looking to buy and hold long-term.
This local shift may also reflect a broader transition across Florida's post-pandemic housing landscape.
A new report by Redfin, highlighted by Yahoo Finance, shows that Florida's southwest coast — including markets like Punta Gorda — has become a hotspot for softening demand.
Homes are sitting on the market longer, price drops are becoming more frequent, and sellers are beginning to lose the upper hand they held during the boom.
Though Florida remains a magnet for out-of-state buyers, experts say that the state's red-hot housing growth is cooling into a more sustainable rhythm.
The pandemic surge may have been an anomaly — one now giving way to a more balanced, if uncertain, real estate reality.
Pictured: A $1.5 million house in Punta Gorda that had a $195,000 price cut
Pictured: A $1.8 million house in Punta Gorda that had a $115,000 price cut
Still, the housing market remains highly local. While parts of Florida continue to see price growth, Punta Gorda serves as a reminder that not every metro is moving in the same direction.
As the state's real estate landscape grows more uneven, local data — not national headlines — will offer the clearest view.
Whether Punta Gorda's correction will be a minor dip or a deeper adjustment remains to be seen.
But with one of the biggest inventory spikes in the country and the highest odds for a price decline, this small city is shaping up to be one of 2025's key housing markets to watch.
