A week ago today, on Thursday, April 3, 2025, Restoration Hardware stock dropped over 40% in less than 24 hours after the announcement of new tariffs by President Donald Trump. “Oh Sh-t,” read a headline in Bloomberg, reporting on RH chief executive officer Gary Friedman’s response to the plummet, which put RH stock at its lowest level in almost five years. By Monday, headlines were even more dour: “Black Monday? The S&P Is Crashing Like It’s 1987” read one from the The Wall Street Journal. By Wednesday night, the tariffs had been paused–all except a higher-than-average tax on Chinese goods–for 90 days. And while the market rallied this morning, stocks in the Dow and S&P500 have since dropped again, making the market's volatility, like the news cycle, the one constant.
Though the outcome to all this remains unclear, a future of pricier goods seems very likely. And, coming at the same time that market-linked savings and retirement funds have, and could again, radically deflate, it all but guarantees a drop in consumer spending, justifying the appearance of words like “recession” and phrases like “bear market” across the media-verse.
What does this mean for the design industry? Everything.
It’s accepted wisdom that when a recession is on the horizon, people stop spending on perceived luxuries. While the definition of luxury depends on income and lifestyle, it’s safe to say that buying homes and renovating falls into the luxury category, and experts are surmising that we’re about to see a slowdown on both. (Conversely, however, some retail domains and supply chains could see an uptick as potential buyers switch course to renovating and attempting to make upgrades themselves). Though the full impact is yet to be seen, the New York Times recently used data and analysis tools from the Observatory of Economic Complexity to model potential hikes in material and labor costs for home builders. In one example, they estimated that a house listed this past March for $2.65 million, had it been built after the tariffs were enacted, could have cost an extra $236,000, which would have pushed the listing price to $2.9 million.
But that’s construction. As we know, what goes inside a house is also on the receiving end of the tariffs. Furniture, art, rugs: all of it comes from all over the world. Brands based in the US source materials from other countries.
To get a sense of the on-the-ground impact of this unfolding story, we reached out to a handful of designers, makers, and builders to find out what they’re seeing and hearing, and how they’re operating. Here’s what we learned.
First panic, then pause
On Thursday, Michael Diaz-Griffith, the executive director and CEO of the Design Leadership Network sent an email to members acknowledging just how widespread the impact of these tariffs will be, and encouraging the community to come together to share strategies. The bottom line: the new tariffs will have far-ranging effects that “touch every part of the design ecosystem—from sourcing and supply chains to project costs and timelines.”
Some of the effects were felt immediately. “The biggest problem is that it came on so suddenly,” says Jenna Chused, the principal designer at Chused and Co. (and owner of Antik). For clients who have already chosen items subject to new import taxes, the cost of what they’ve purchased has gone up overnight, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Going forward, Chused is going to list the import tax as a line item on invoices, so it’s clear that her prices haven’t gone up, and the increase in cost is in direct relation to the tariffs.
But when we spoke to her a few days ago, Chused, like so many in the industry, was in wait-and-see mode. “It’s very fresh. We’re watching it in real time,” she says. “Everyone is like, this is not going to stick. We can’t believe it, it’s not going last.” That doesn’t mean she’s not facing the possibility of what it could mean for her business and the industry as a whole.
Certain items will cost more
As many makers and brands wait to see how “all this” resolves itself, it’s possible prices won’t rise immediately or at all. It also depends on the category of good: as the Business of Home put it, “It’s an industry maxim that while upholstery still has a foothold in America, case goods at scale are long gone,” which means dressers, desks, and tables will all but certainly go up in price, and fast. Same with outdoor furniture, which is primarily made outside the U.S., typically using materials like steel and aluminum already subject to tariffs.
Again, nothing here is clear-cut. Depending on what happens in the next 90 days, certain countries will likely still see higher tariffs than others, or no new tariffs at all. In the meantime, brands are reportedly reaching out to client lists, trying to assure them that for the moment, they’re keeping prices steady. Like the furniture and lights manufacturers Alfonso Marina that recently sent a note to US clients to let them know there would be no new tariffs applied. “While there's always a possibility of future changes in trade policy, we're confident in the stability of our current standing and will remain vigilant to ensure smooth operations” (which, Bibiana Guzmán clarified in a separate email, refers to tariffs specifically on wood-based imports in the US, which is Alfonso Marina's primary raw material).
The impact will be in the details (first)
In the U.S., we love a European import. We also love goods made in India and Vietnam. And even if we don’t think we love imports from these places (among so many others), in many cases, the fabric or wood or leather or cement used for the domestic-branded goods we love is being imported. As the price of house foundations and other cement-based elements go up along with the cost of lumber, fabric, and labor, it could be the small but defining elements of design that get the axe: higher-quality light fixtures, finer trim, imported sofas, etc.
And while they might have been less immediately impacted by the rising cost of goods like aluminum and wood, the new tariffs are hitting everyone, across the board, says Chused, “both high and low.” It impacts the big vendors and the boutiques, the showrooms in the U.S. selling European goods and the makers across the water.
The outcome is unclear (and so is what to do about it, now)
While optimistic isn’t exactly the word for it, many brands we heard from, even before the pause, aren’t panicking. The hope is that whatever happens, and based on what we’ve seen so far, the tariffs are too bad for too many to really stick.
Some big outlets like Restoration Hardware (RH), whose stock surged again after the pause, can lean on current inventory to help minimize the impact of supply chain issues on consumers. “I’m really happy about the inventory position we’re in,” CEO Gary Friedman said last week.
For others, the strategies are still cooking, as importers, designers, and makers continue to try and make sense of the changes before finding ways to navigate them. Kerri McCulloch, the chief marketing office of Perennials and Sutherland out of Texas says it’s such a moving target right now that the implications are hard to assess, as different parts of the supply chain are impacted in different ways.
