Sensex, Nifty to see up to 5% gap up on Friday? What's in for D-St as Trump pauses tariffs

Indian equity markets are set for strong opening on Friday, tracking the global rebound after US President Donald Trump 90-day suspension on the new tariffs on all nations, except China. A near-term sentiment for India would be neutral to positive, but volatility would continue, believe market experts.

If one goes by the signals from the Gift Nifty, the futures on the NSE International Exchange were up nearly 750 points, or 23,238 on Thursday, indicating a solid start for the Indian stock markets on Friday, April 11, when indices will resume trading. Indian stock exchanges are closed on Thursday, April, observing a holiday on the account of Mahavir Jayanti.

Trump's announcement comes after a sharp global market selloff that had erased trillions from the pockets of investors worldwide. However, global shares surged and a manic bond selloff stabilised on Thursday after Trump's pause. US' S&P 500 index zoomed nearly 9.5 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei was up 9 per cent. Asian and European markets saw a 5-6 per cent rally.

The Trump government announcing a 90-day pause is a welcome move which reflected positively in other Asian markets today and Indian markets too would see a similar kind of 3-5 per cent gap-up opening on Friday, as any negative action against China with a tariff increasing to 125 per cent would eventually benefit India the most, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities.

"Markets are likely to get a breather, lifting investors' mood, with the government getting more time to work on the deal with the US. A mutually beneficial multi-sectoral bilateral trade agreement is on a table between India and US Trade teams. Team Modi is working for a strong partnership deal for trade relations, economic relations, investment relations, and commercial relations," he said.

Indian Benchmark indices settled lower on Wednesday amid the rising global meltdown over tariff concerns, post RBI's monetary policy where it cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Beside this, traders shall be reacting to TCS earnings for the March 2025 quarter due on Thursday.
 

The Indian stock market is anticipated to open strongly on Friday, April 11. This optimism is attributed to the easing of trade tensions following the U.S. tariff pause, which is expected to positively impact investor sentiment in India, said Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst - APAC at VT Markets.
 

"Sectors that were previously under pressure due to tariff concerns may experience a rebound, contributing to the overall positive outlook for the Indian equity markets as they resume trading. If India succeeds in negotiating a better deal in the coming month, it could serve as a catalyst for Nifty’s recovery moving forward," he said.

BSE Sensex dropped 379.93 points, or 0.51 per cent to settle at 73,847.15, while NSE's Nifty50 lost 136.70 points, or 0.61 per cent to 22,399.15. Broader market indices, BSE midcap and smallcap indices dropped up to a per cent on Wednesday. Fear gauge India VIX was seen at 21.43-level on Wednesday, which has spiked nearly 60 per cent in the last one week.

With the tariff tensions seems to be easing, the markets might breathe a little easier in the short term. This pause shows a step back from uncertainty, helping global sentiments and India stands to benefit from that, said Trivesh, COO at Tradejini. With global cues improving, a renewed interest in sectors tied to domestic growth, like banking and consumption, could be seen, he said.

"However, we are not out of the woods yet. Inflation and central bank policies will still drive near-term volatility. But from a long-term perspective, this pause gives investors a chance to realign their portfolios, stay invested, and maybe even add to positions that were under pressure," he cautioned.

Among the other asset classes, the US dollar dipped against safe havens and more risk sensitive currencies. Gold prices extended gains on Thursday, driven by an escalating trade war between the United States and China, while Crypto tokens were also seen zooming higher. However, US stock index futures fell on Thursday, after an eye-watering rally on Wednesday.

Trump’s 90‑day tariff pause and its temporary cut to 10 per cent have eased macroeconomic uncertainties and injected fresh market optimism. Market participants now have improved liquidity and a stronger economic backdrop, which has intensified risk‑on sentiment, said Himanshu Maradiya, Founder & Chairman at CIFDAQ Group. "Many investors now view this regulatory pause as a positive sign for a broader rebound in global growth prospects," he said.