Tennessee vs. Houston predictions, picks and best bets for March Madness Elite 8

The NCAA Tournament’s Midwest Regional Final will be contested between heavyweights Houston and Tennessee on Sunday afternoon with the winner booking a trip to San Antonio for the Final Four.

No. 1 seed Houston (33-4 SU, 19-17-1 ATS) and No. 2 Tennessee (30-7 SU, 20-17 ATS) are top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency — allowing fewer than 0.94 points per possession. So, don’t expect either team to shoot the lights out.

The Cougars are seeking their second Final Four in coach Kelvin Sampson’s tenure — the first coming in 2021. Tennessee has never been to the Final Four.

Houston is a 2.5- to 3.5-point favorite over the Vols. The over/under is a paltry 123.5 points. Here are our Tennessee vs. Houston predictions, picks and best bets for the Elite 8.

Tennessee vs. Houston Prediction

• Over 123.5 points (-110 odds at Caesars Sportsbook)
• Houston -2.5 (-120 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
• L.J. Cryer points Over 14.5 (-125 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

If you like close games that go back and forth, you will want to let go of all distractions to keep 100% focus on Tennessee vs. Houston.

Both teams are among the slowest in the nation and play tremendous defense. Their defensive reputations are so strong that it’s easy to gloss over how strong they are on offense.

Houston is the nation’s best 3-point shooting team at 39.8%, and Tennessee has been better on offense than on defense since early February.

In addition, both teams are senior-laden and boast guards with tons of experience. No matter how well their opponents play defensively, players like L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan for Houston and Zakai Ziegler, Jahmai Mashack and Chaz Lanier for Tennesse are going to find a way to score. They may not score a lot, but they’ll score enough to send this game over the low total of 123.5 points.

Both teams have advantages that could set them apart, but it’s like splitting hairs. Sometimes the X’s and O’s are even or too tough to decipher. Then you look for intangibles. That’s how I landed on Houston to win and cover the small point spread.

Tennessee is coming off a great game in which it blew out archrival Kentucky. The Vols suffocated the hot-shooting Wildcats from the start and never let go. It was an emotional win in the biggest game in the rivalry’s history. Can they rise and play even better two days later?

Houston, on the other hand, feels like it left something on the court in the win over Purdue. The Cougars escaped with a brilliant inbounds play in the final 3 seconds, but they never got much offensive momentum thanks to a subpar performance by leading scorer L.J. Cryer.

Look for the Cougars to bounce back and punch their ticket to San Antonio.

Speaking of Cryer, this is a great chance to buy low on the senior guard. Cryer leads Houston with 15.3 points per game and is a lethal 3-point shooter. In the Sweet 16 win over Purdue, he struggled and was limited to five points.

In his last three games this season when scoring single digits, he bounced back to score at least 15 in the next game. At 14.5 points, you’re getting a good total for him to eclipse in such a big game.

Tennessee vs. Houston moneyline odds analysis

Why Houston could win as the favorite

Best odds: -155 at bet365 Sportsbook

Both teams are great defensively, but Houston has a gear nobody else in the nation has. That will make a difference against Tennessee, which has struggled to put up lofty point totals in big games like this under coach Rick Barnes.

Houston limited Purdue to five points in the last four minutes on Friday. In the Big 12 Tournament championship game, Houston limited Arizona to one field goal and five total points in the final 6 minutes, and 45 seconds.

If the Cougars are locked in on defense, it’s all they need in the clutch.

Why Tennessee could win as the underdog

Best odds: +136 at DraftKings Sportsbook

As great as Houston is on defense, Tennessee is not far behind. The Vols should be in this game from start to finish. If that’s the case, they just need to make bigger plays down the stretch.

That’s likely to happen with point guard Zakai Ziegler running the show. It helps that Chaz Lanier is a walking bucket. If the Cougars don’t zoom in on him, he could hit a few 3-pointers and give Tennessee a cushion.

Tennessee has been tested against the SEC — the toughest conference in college basketball history this season. The Vols will not be intimidated by Houston and have the talent to pull the upset.