By Gloria Ogbonna

If you trust public sentiment surveys, we’re experiencing both the best and worst of times. According to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, 41 percent of Americans now believe the country is on the “right track”—the highest level of optimism recorded in over two decades.

Yet, paradoxically, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has plummeted to its lowest level since 2021, painting a much gloomier picture of the economy.

This contradiction deepens when you examine the vast disparity between how Americans perceive their current financial conditions versus their expectations for the future. Consumers have been bracing for an economic downturn since inflation skyrocketed in 2021-2022 under the Biden administration.

But despite their persistent fears, that major slump has never arrived. Bank of America’s Aditya Bhave has described this phenomenon as historically unprecedented, noting that “the decline in expectations has been twice as large as the drop in the present situation index.”

The pessimism is especially pronounced among Democrats, whose views on the economy seem increasingly driven by political anxiety rather than actual financial distress.

Polling suggests that many Democrats see something worse than the COVID-19 recession or the 2008 financial crisis looming ahead—an outlook that likely stems more from their frustration over Donald Trump’s return to power than from any real economic indicators.

Meanwhile, corporate America and the financial press have latched onto tariffs as a universal scapegoat for every economic challenge.

In earnings calls, executives now routinely cite tariffs as the primary cause of negative trends, while financial analysts scramble to frame even positive developments as potential disasters due to import duties.

This has reached almost comical levels—if a company like Lululemon reports slowing sales, it blames tariffs rather than shifting consumer trends. So far, Disney hasn’t pointed fingers at tariffs for its string of box office flops, but given enough time, it just might.

The alarmism over tariffs has led to absurd contradictions. If inflation rises, tariffs—many of which haven’t even been implemented yet—are blamed. If businesses ramp up capital investment, it’s dismissed as “front-running” to get ahead of anticipated tariffs.

When consumer spending remained strong despite predictions of a pullback, analysts simply reversed their explanations, attributing the surge to consumers supposedly “front-running” tariffs themselves.

What makes this situation even stranger is that Donald Trump is significantly more popular now than he was during his first term—when consumer sentiment was far higher.

Recent Gallup polling shows his approval ratings climbing among key demographics, with Hispanic support up by 15 points, Black support rising by nine points, and young adult approval increasing by six points.

Much of this shift is attributed to growing Republican identification among these groups, which itself suggests a more optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy’s potential to deliver prosperity.

Yet, when we turn to the hard economic data, it tells a far more encouraging story than consumer sentiment surveys suggest.

The latest figures on personal income and spending show that Americans are continuing to earn and spend at healthy rates. In February, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.4 percent, while personal income saw a robust 0.8 percent increase.

Typically, such income growth would be associated with higher consumer confidence, but instead, we see a lingering disconnect between Americans’ financial behavior and their reported economic anxieties.

Recent history has shown that relying too heavily on consumer sentiment surveys can be misleading. Throughout the post-pandemic era, hard economic data has provided a more accurate reflection of reality.

As long as employment remains strong and wages continue to rise, Americans will keep spending—even if they tell pollsters that they’re bracing for an economic catastrophe.

The lesson here is simple: trust the data, not the narrative.

Source Breitbart