The US markets are expected to trade in green this week but remain in a close range. The real action begins next week as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on all countries unfold.

Monday looks to be in favour of the bulls with US stock futures trading in green. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.51%, and the Dow rose 1.2% last week.

Overall, the US recession concerns and President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies are keeping the market at tenterhooks.

The April 2 deadline for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs continues to dominate market sentiment, despite the President’s suggestion on Friday that his plan may have some “flexibility.” The tariffs might be more limited in scope, possibly eliminating certain industry-specific penalties, according to reports that appeared over the weekend.

On Friday, consumer mood reports, housing sales and pricing data, and the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index are all anticipated. Data from the GDP and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will also be highlighted this week. Investors await flash US PMI figures set for release on Monday.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January), Consumer Confidence (March), New home sales (February) will be released this week on Tuesday. Also, McCormick & Co. (MKC), GameStop, Core & Main (CNM), Smithfield Foods (SFD), Pony.ai (PONY), Rumble (RUM), Smithfield Foods are scheduled to report earnings.

Discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR), fitness clothing manufacturer Lululemon (LULU), online pet supply retailer Chewy (CHWY), and nuclear power supplier Oklo (OKLO) are all expected to release their earnings this week.

Economic indicators issued this week include updated inflation statistics, consumer confidence, housing data, and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note edged up to around 4.28% on Monday, as investors awaited further clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policies ahead of the April 2 deadline for his reciprocal tariffs.

Following indications that inflation was slowing down in January, the February personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index is set to be released on Friday. However, the Fed maintained interest rates at its meeting last week despite recent drops in the cost-of-living indicator. According to the Fed’s most current predictions, inflation in 2025 was expected to surpass the 2.5% annual pace of price increases in January.

This week will also see a focus on consumer surveys, as recent reports have indicated a decline in consumer confidence as well as a waning sentiment among manufacturers, homebuilders, and small company owners. Tuesday’s release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index comes after a steep drop last month, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index’s final March figures follow a low point.

As the housing market continues to struggle with affordability, a number of housing-related data points are expected this week. On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for January and the February new home sales data are likely to be released. On Thursday, the February pending home sales data is anticipated to provide an outlook on housing sales.

Following remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week, market observers are anticipated to hear from Fed Presidents John Williams of the New York Fed, Tom Barkin of the Richmond Fed, and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed this week.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced two rate decreases in 2025 but underlined that it is not in a hurry to loosen policy further.

Japanese Markets

After BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida hinted that the central bank would keep raising interest rates provided inflation and economic targets were on track, the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond increased to about 1.54% on Monday, approaching 16-year highs.

Last week, the BOJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, deciding to analyze global economic risks, including the potential impact of rising US tariffs on Japan’s economy.

Gold and Silver

With uncertainties around geo-politics coming down, gold seems to correct from the record high levels reached last week. Gold prices dropped to $3,000 after reaching record highs last week, rebounding from $3,000 to $3,025 but still in correction mode. Gold price today in India is Rs 88,110.

The yellow metal’s decline is attributed to increased hopes for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, and positive Riyadh talks reducing safe-haven demand. Further correction on gold price is expected over the short term. However, the price structure remains bullish despite a drop to $3,000, supported by potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The US economy’s slowdown and any American recession could potentially boost investor demand for gold as a safe-haven hedge.

Bullishness in Silver seems intact with the price around $33. Silver price today in India is Rs 97,910. Any correction may be bought into. Will Silver prices have more room to cover? Read this to know.