The “Trump Slump” Playbook: How to Invest Now
Editor’s Note: We’re living through a bizarre and unsettling reality where the world’s most powerful country is run by a man seemingly hellbent on economic suicide. Assisting the president is an unelected billionaire whose strategy appears to be chaos for the sake of chaos.
The mood in markets is dimming as economic growth slows, inflation persists, and market volatility worsens.
What does this mean for you, the individual investor? It means opportunity if you know where to look. Don’t run for the hills; implement the following playbook instead. Even during the darkest times, you should always stay invested.
Bad karma on the Street…
Let’s call it what it is. The market is in the throes of a “Trump Slump.”
The President’s on-again, off-again tariff policies, his bellicose approach to geopolitics, and his enthusiastic gutting of the federal workforce have created an environment of deep uncertainty.
Investors despise uncertainty. The stock market acts as the ultimate weighing machine. Over time, it delivers “karma” by rewarding companies and investors who make informed, ethical, and strategic decisions while punishing those who engage in short-term thinking or deceit, as market realities inevitably correct overvaluations or uncover hidden flaws.
These days, the karma is bad. The following price chart of the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) tells the story (all charts in this article were compiled with data as of market close Friday, March 7):
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank is waiting to see how Trump’s aggressive policy actions pan out before it moves again on interest rates. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” Powell said at a policy forum in New York.
Powell’s restrained rhetoric helped markets crawl out of negative territory Friday. The trading session was highly volatile; the Dow Jones Industrial Average swung by more than 700 points.
However, for the week the major U.S. equity indices were sharply down. The S&P 500 notched its worst week since September with a loss of 3.1%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.4%; and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite slid 3.5%.
Last week marked the third consecutive week of losses for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ Composite is down more than 10% from its record set in December, putting the index in correction territory.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has surged sharply higher in recent weeks. This spike signals heightened investor anxiety.
Historically, when the VIX rises above 20, it suggests that traders anticipate greater-than-normal price swings over the next 30 days. The VIX currently hovers above 23 (see chart).
Wall Street analysts are increasingly bearish over the economy and stock market. Consumers are getting skittish, too.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3 for the month of February, down nearly 7% and well below the consensus forecast for 102.3. It was the largest monthly drop since August 2021.
The Expectations Index plummeted 9.3 points to a 72.9 reading, the first time since June 2024 that the measure has fallen below the level consistent with recession.
Meanwhile, Trump’s top advisor—who, to be clear, was never elected by anyone—is none other than Elon Musk, the ketamine-loving, hypomanic billionaire who is wielding a chainsaw against the government. Musk is spending less time running electric vehicle maker Tesla (NSDQ: TSLA) and more time insinuating his way into the corridors of power.
Read This Story: The Perils of Investing in a Cult of Personality
Once a beacon of innovation, Tesla has become one of the most hated brands in the world, its stock price in free fall as Musk alienates his natural customer base.
Take a look at the following stock price chart for TSLA. It paints an ugly picture of wealth destruction, with shares well below their 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Tesla sales are plunging across the globe. In February, Tesla new-vehicle registrations declined by 76.3% in Germany and 26% in France. Similar drops have occurred throughout Europe and the U.S.
Meanwhile, acts of terrorism are being waged against Tesla showrooms and charging stations. Protestors are torching and demolishing Tesla facilities and even spray painting swastikas on Tesla vehicles.
Case in point: a Colorado Tesla dealership has been attacked five times in recent weeks, the most recent occurring in the late evening March 6 and involving what police called “incendiary devices.”
It appears that Musk’s open flirtations with authoritarianism are bad for business. A member of the “Magnificent Seven” of big tech equities, Tesla also is getting the thumbs down from Wall Street.
And when it rains, in pours. Nearly two months after a fiery SpaceX explosion scattered debris across the Turks and Caicos, Musk’s aerospace company launched another massive Starship rocket on Thursday, only to lose contact minutes into the flight as the spacecraft plummeted back to earth and disintegrated.
This time, the wreckage rained down over Florida. If you’re keeping count, that’s four Starship explosions out of eight attempts, an exceedingly high failure rate.
Economic headlines haven’t been much better. Layoffs surged by 245% in February compared to January, according to data released March 6 by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Approximately 172,000 workers were laid off last month, with more than one-third—roughly 62,000—losing their jobs due to cuts at the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Musk’s DOGE initiative.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported March 7 that February employment data fell short of expectations. Payrolls came in at 151,000 vs. 160,000 expected. The unemployment rate rose 4.1%, up from 4% in January. This jobs data only extends to February 15 and doesn’t fully reflect the massive federal job cuts wreaked by DOGE. Analysts are starting to dust off the “r” word, i.e. recession.
The Trump administration is currently floating the idea of “revising” government economic data to be more “favorable” to his regime. For decades, economic data in the U.S. has been objective and transparent. But if the numbers suddenly start looking too rosy despite massive layoffs and recessionary conditions, you’ll know why.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a compilation of insights from hundreds of businesses published eight times a year, reflected growing uncertainty and mounting concerns over tariffs.
Released on March 5, the latest edition (for the month of February) mentioned “uncertainty” 47 times, significantly higher than the 17 references in January’s report.
The Fed’s New York branch highlighted the shift in sentiment, stating, “Many businesses noted heightened economic uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs.” Looking ahead, optimism among businesses had noticeably declined.
Corporate leaders, typically tolerant of a bumpy ride as long as tax cuts are involved, are having second thoughts about the Trump agenda.
Meanwhile, the Western alliance has been shattered as Trump pivots to Russia. The geopolitical instability is real and it has direct consequences for your investments.
How to Make Money Amid the Madness
Now, it would be easy to tell you to just buy Treasury bills or stuff your cash under the mattress. But that’s not what we’re here to do. Chaos creates opportunity, and if you play your cards right, you can protect your wealth and even turn a profit. Here’s how:
- Gold and Precious Metals
Historically, during times of political and economic turmoil, gold has been a safe haven. With confidence in government institutions cratering, expect gold prices to surge further.
Gold enjoys a time-proven reputation as a hedge against inflation. Gold’s value tends to rise when inflation gains traction, largely because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar diminishes in value, the price of gold generally increases.
Instead of holding physical bullion, consider investing in gold mining stocks, which offer leveraged exposure to rising gold prices.
Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) and Newmont (NYSE: NEM) are two industry leaders poised to benefit as the price of the Midas Metal soars. Mining stocks tend to outperform physical gold in bull markets because of their ability to scale production and benefit from operating leverage.
- Defense Stocks
If history teaches us anything, it’s that governments love military spending in times of crisis. The defense sector tends to be recession-proof, and with global instability rising, certain stocks will thrive.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), a leading defense contractor, is well-positioned to benefit from increased military budgets worldwide.
Investors looking for diversified exposure should consider the benchmark SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR), which includes top players in the industry.
- Energy and Commodities
Regardless of the political chaos, the world still needs oil, gas, and agricultural products. These sectors tend to hold up well during downturns.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) remain strong bets, particularly as supply disruptions in energy markets persist.
Agricultural commodities should see gains due to supply chain disruptions, making the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) a smart hedge against food inflation.
- High-Quality, Dividend-Paying Stocks
While speculative tech names crater (goodbye, TSLA), established blue-chip companies with strong balance sheets and steady dividends remain attractive.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) offer solid dividend yields and stability during economic turmoil.
Dividend aristocrats provide not just steady income but also long-term resilience against market volatility.
Keep Your Head While Others Lose Theirs
One of the worst mistakes investors make in times of crisis is getting emotionally whipsawed by the cacophony in the media. The talking heads on cable news care about ratings, not your portfolio. And let’s be honest: most of them don’t know the first thing about economics.
Yes, things look grim. But history shows that markets always bounce back from crisis, war, and political insanity. The key is to stay invested, think long term, and avoid getting sucked into the panic.
In the end, chaos isn’t just something to survive—it’s something to profit from. Just make sure you’re on the right side of the trade.
Got a burning question or a hot take? Drop John Persinos a line at mailbag@investingdaily.com
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